Neutral
Event

Fortune. Blessed. Cursed.

Cost: 0.
Test Icons:

Fast. Play during any window.

Add 3 [curse] tokens to the chaos bag. Then, add 3 [bless] tokens to the chaos bag and draw 1 card.

Diana Martínez
The Innsmouth Conspiracy #37.
Tempt Fate
Reviews

I saw a lot of people saying Tempt Fate is a free cantrip since the Bless and Curse tokens just cancel out each other, but I have a feeling this is not exactly the case. Let's look at the numbers.

Standard The Gathering, as -1, as +1 (probabilities from www.arkhambagcalculator.net):

At -1 / +0 / +1 / +2 / +3 / +4 above test difficulty, the probabilities to succeed are 13% / 25% / 63% / 81% / 88% / 94%.

With 3 Bless and 3 Curse, those probabilities shift to 17% / 29% / 59% / 76% / 85% / 92%, i.e. a change of +4% / +4% / -4% / -5% / -3% / -2%.

Given that it's likely that you do way more tests at +1 or above than at +0 or below, I would say the net impact of the 3 Bless + 3 Curse added is slightly negative.

Whether this is worthwhile for the deck thinning effect or not is debatable, but it is not exactly free.

ak45 · 281
I don't know, I feel like I'll probably never take this card for the sole purpose of being a cantrip. I'll play it if I want blessed and/or cursed tokens in the bag for a specific effect (blessed blade, cryptic grimoire, dark ritual to compensate, etc.). The card's worth seems entirely dependent on your other cards. Because you have to consider that the bag may already be full of curse tokens from something like Dread Curse and Faustian Bargain. In which case, you'd just get the benefit, no? — LaRoix · 180
No. It says ‘Then’ which means the rest of that sentence is conditional on the previous effect being resolved ‘in full’. So if it adds 2 or fewer Curse tokens, then you get no Bless tokens and no card draw. — Death by Chocolate · 501
Agreed. Having used this in practice in 4 player with one of us playing Sister Mary, this isn't nearly as cantrippy as it appears. Most of us sat with copies of this in our hand because we were at 8+ bless tokens in the bag and didn't want to add curses — NarkasisBroon · 1

I'm a little surprised that discussion of this card so far has been focused on two issues that seem to me secondary.

1) How bless and curse tokens change your odds of passing checks. 2) The advantages of deck-thinning.

The main reason to play this card, in my view, is because you're going for a build that exploits either bless or curse tokens to achieve other, card-based effects. And if you are, it's wonderful! Here are some nice combos that you can pull off with current and upcoming cards:

Bless deck:

1) Rite of Sanctification: If you happen to have both the Rite and Tempt Fate in your opening hand, you can immediately seal three Bless tokens on the Rite for a total savings of six resources over time. Not bad! If the combo emerges later in the game, it's less valuable, but still likely to be helpful.

2) Radiant Smite: If you have Tempt and Smite in your hand at the same time, you can drop the Tempt to make an absolutely bonkers attack with +3 Will and 4 damage.

3) Ward of Radiance: Unfortunately, I don't think you can use the player window in the Mythos phase to draw your card, dump bless tokens in the bag with Tempt, and then cancel with the Ward. BUT if you have the Ward and Tempt in hand heading into a Mythos phase and think you might want to cancel what you draw, you can increase your odds of doing so by plumping the bag.

4) Beloved: If you desperately need to pass a check but lack the skill value, you can increase your odds of an auto-success by dumping some bless tokens in the bag before you draw (heck, even if you draw a curse token, your second pull could be a bless).

5) Ancient Covenant: Once a turn, bless tokens are pretty much auto-successes. They therefore become MUCH more valuable, and worth the 3 curse tokens.

Curse Deck: As a general rule, curse decks love this card even more than bless decks do. Bless decks are willing to deal with the three curse tokens in order to achieve some other benefit, but if cursing is your jam, it's not like you HATE having bless tokens in the bag as well. Tempt Fate simply becomes a win-win!

1) Blasphemous Covenant: Tempt Fate works great with this card. Just play Tempt Fate as soon as you draw it, and feel the math of the bag bend in your advantage...

2) Skeptic: This seems like a weak card to me, especially at 1xp, but if you happen to be running it, Tempt Fate does make it mathematically more advantageous.

3) Eye of Chaos: Once again, the bless tokens help you pass checks; the curse tokens get you clues. If you're into ocular entropy, you're happy about all SIX of the tokens that Tempt puts in your bag.

4) Gaze of Ouraxsh: I have no idea whether this card is good or not, but I do know that the cursier the bag, the better it gets!

5) Cryptic Grimoire: Man, this thing seems hard to translate, even with a couple tempts in your deck. But the tempts will certainly help.

Summary: To me, it's kind of an academic question whether this card is good or bad in a deck that has nothing else to do with blessing and cursing. Clearly, it's a FANTASTIC card, probably even an auto-include, in decks that are using bless and curse tokens to do other things.

It's also entirely possible that you have one person in your team using bless tokens and another using curse tokens, in which case both of them running this card gets you *even more value*. — Thatwasademo · 31
I agree. All you need to make this very powerful is a 2xp covenant. Only risk in my experience is in a 4 player game you might end up with too many blesses and curses in the bag and you can't play this until a few curses have been removed — NarkasisBroon · 1

This card is much more potent and insidious than it first appears.

The effect of adding 3 [curse] and 3 [bless] to the chaos bag is not why I would consider running Tempt Fate. All that does is to increase the volatility of the chaos bag, unless you have a way to leverage blesses and curses (which I'm sure will be coming out in this cycle - I'm writing this review as of Innsmouth Conspiracy).

The secret effect of this card is that its a 0 resource, fast card (that can be played in any window), that says draw a card. Discounting the bless and curse mechanic for a minute, this is a completely free "cantrip" (or card that replaces itself). So it costs no actions nor resources to play and the only real opportunity cost to use it is to include it in your deck over something else. So lets think about that cost as a benefit.

There is speculation in many card games that such a cost-free cantrip would see play at the highest levels because it makes your deck more consistent. Effectively it can be considered to be "water" because it will always be played straight away and replace itself straight away; it might as well be considered not in your deck for most purposes. This means that you are effectively breaking deck construction rules by packing 2 less cards than your deck size, therefore making it more consistent.

Fortunately Arkham Horror is different to most other card games: card draw for us is not necessarily king, owing to every deck having at least one weakness that it mostly doesn't want to draw into. However, digging deeper that's not really true - most weaknesses can be handled, but you just don't want to draw them at the wrong time. So given that you can control when to play the cantrip, the main reason against making your deck smaller can be ignored with smart play.

Do you run Prepared for the Worst / Tetsuo Mori to get away with running fewer weapons in guardian? Tempt Fate too. Do you use Mr. "Rook" to help find specific cards or to set up a combo? Tempt Fate too.
Do you ever spend experience on cards and want a higher chance of finding your powerful cards each turn? Tempt Fate.

I fully expect this to get hit by the taboo list; such consistency feels like the sort of thing that gets put onto XP cards. I only hope it doesn't set a precedent.

The_Wall · 180
I think you're really underestimating how bad adding 3 curses to the bag is. I don't think this card is worth playing unless you have a way to exploit curses. — OrionJA · 1
The thing is, I dislike the idea of running this card just for thinning your deck. You know what else effectively does that while also giving you a net benefit? Any of the neutral skill card assuming you can trigger them reliably. If you're Joe Diamond, and you're not already running both of Overpower and Perceptions, and you have no blurse synergy, DO NOT TAKE TEMPT FATE. — StyxTBeuford · 11141
I agree that curses are bad, they are pretty likely to make 3 tests fail. Tempt fate is easer to play than the neutral skill cards, as they require an approriate test. Overpower doesn't do anything when there's no enemy around. However with more XP your stats will increase so the curse's modifier is less likely to cause a fail and tempt fate makes it more likely to draw your XP cards. — Django · 2884
Unless you get both at once. Or all 3. — MrGoldbee · 253
I still think you take the appropriate skill cards first. Overpower has done its deck-thinning job if you get it to trigger at any point, so unless you get it in your hand and never see an enemy, it'll work effectively the same as Tempt Fate, while also boosting a fight and not hurting you randomly later. If you want to add in Tempt Fate after than, fair enough. — StyxTBeuford · 11141
That* — StyxTBeuford · 11141
Overpower is not guaranteed at all, there has to be an enemy, then even if you cover the -7/-8 there is still tentacles. This is actionless and testless, Overpower requires a test and probably an action. Therefore guaranteed deck thinning (and yes the point is to dig faster for your XP cards). Also the bag has increased volatility as I said, but adding 3 blesses generally counteracts adding 3 curses. Unless you'd like to show statistical analysis to the contrary? — The_Wall · 180
I think you guys are getting hung up on the fact that I called out Overpower specifically. I really do mean whichever neutral skills work for your build. If you don't think Overpower will trigger reliably, then don't take it, but still look at the other neutrals based on your stats. — StyxTBeuford · 11141
I haven't seen the statistical analysis yet comparing curses to blesses, but the general consensus from people who have played with the mechanic right now is that curse hurts more than bless helps, and I think that makes a lot of sense as you're typically overcommitting to tests anyway. Bless is more likely to be helpful when you're meeting a test value (so it cancels a negative) or under (where it brings in the potential to succeed where you otherwise wouldn't), while curse can cancel your overcommit and destroy your odds, which hurts much harder and is more likely to happen. Of course, that doesn't factor in how one would play while knowing the tokens are in the bag, so that comparison is still a bit choppy, but I think generally it makes sense that curses hurt more than bless helps. — StyxTBeuford · 11141
Many decks rely on some powerful combos. In these cases this card is probably more useful than on average. The cost of increasing the randomness of the chaos bag is small copared to pull off your combo sooner. Finally, if Harvey Walters is on your group ot seems the easiest way to trigger his ability. — Matamagos · 4