Rogue
Event

Fortune. Gambit.

Cost: 2.
Test Icons:

One at a time, reveal random tokens from the chaos bag until you choose to stop. Treat each , , , or as a 5; the as a 10; and the as either a 1 or an 11. If the combined value of those tokens (ignoring +/-) is...

- ...18 or less, gain 4 resources.

- ...19, gain 5 resources.

- ...20, gain 6 resources.

- ...21, gain 9 resources.

Vlad Ricean
Edge of the Earth Investigator Expansion #48.
21 or Bust
Reviews

The expected resources is about 5.0 resources, same as Emergency Cache, in standard token setup. Many "5" give slightly better result, but many above 5 (-6, -8) give poor result. In this reason, this card is not suitable for expert difficulty. If you consider "fun", 21 or bust is good choice unlike Henry Wan, since 21 or bust at least achieves E-Cache.

Additionally, if your deck has Prophetic, 21 or bust may be better than E-cahce. Since 21 or bust has fortune trait, you can play 21 or bust for free with Prophetic. Sadly, Prophetic doesn't have , so that only off-class investigators can do.

Note: additional -5 or symbol token slightly increases the expected resources, and -7 or -8 token significantly decreases the expected resources.

The below is my stratagy. I believe your intuition is better, so please refer this just for fun.


Here is my stratagy to achieve E-Cache. According to the combined value of revealed tokens,

  • 11 or less: reveal 1 additional token
  • 12, 13: reveal 1 additional token only if and/or was revealed. (exceptional case: stop if you revealed but you bust if you treat as 11).
  • 14, 15, 16: reveal 1 additional token
  • 17, 18, 19: reveal 1 additional token only if was revealed and treated as 1.
  • 20: reveal 1 addtional token with above condition and if 2 or more "1" tokens exist in bag.
  • 21 or more: stop

Nevertheless, I believe many of you don't want to stop when the total value is 12 or 13 (including me) for fun. I also give the expectation value when you follow above stratagy but don't stop at 12/13.

NotZ Standard bag] ideal: 4.98, proposed: 4.96, proposed(non-stop): 4.86, 17-stop: 4.76
NotZ Standard bag + ] ideal: 5.01, proposed: 4.99, proposed(non-stop): 4.95, 17-stop: 4.85
NotZ Hard bag] ideal: 5.02, proposed: 5.00, proposed(non-stop): 4.97, 17-stop: 4.88
NotZ Hard bag + ] ideal: 5.07, proposed: 5.03, proposed(non-stop): 5.03, 17-stop: 4.96
Here, "ideal" means ideal stratagy. I reveal one additional token only if the expectation will be increased considering all cases. It's the upper bound if you don't know the future information.

With above stratagy, you can achieve below table in standard NotZ.

name
0
4
5
6
9
exp
ideal 3.6% 58.1% 9.6% 13.6% 15.1% 4.98
proposed 3.7% 60.1% 9.6% 10.2% 16.3% 4.96
nonstop 11.2% 44.0% 13.6% 12.9% 18.3% 4.86
17stop 8.8% 48.9% 14.8% 13.9% 13.7% 4.76
12/13/17stop 2.9% 61.7% 11.6% 11.7% 12.1% 4.83

(modified Oct 8, 2021)

elkeinkrad · 230
This card is probably really bad (if you stop at 17 it's sub-E-cache-efficiency), but it's really fun. — Zinjanthropus · 185
If you're expert gambler, you can earn more resource than E-cache. 0.1 higher than E-cache. However, I believe I cannot earn 5 resources using this card. (note: 17-stop gives approx. 4.75 resources) — elkeinkrad · 230
4.83 in standard notz + 1 additional symbol token (17-stop) — elkeinkrad · 230
Do you not put the token back in the bag after revealing it and drawing the next? — Olider · 1
I think the tokens are returned after the effect ends, like test. — elkeinkrad · 230
What does the phrase "(ignoring +/-)" on the card mean? It sounds like numbered tokens are ignored? But then you can't even get 19 or 18? — Nils · 1

This card is interesting thematically because, while Rogues have a lot of betting in their thematics, they tend to NOT gamble! A rogue, before this card, said "Gambling is for chumps" like the ace hustlers they were and what their cards were more about them being certain about the outcome and deciding to make calculated wagers, not gambles. They leave that for Mystics and Survivors!

It isn't going to affect the mechanics one way or the other, but it does make my rundown of Rogues for new players a bit less accurate!

dezzmont · 69
This is why you should try to cheat! Maybe ask your friendly mystic to see the ure — Goboxel · 1
This is why you should try to cheat! Maybe ask your friendly mystic to see the future or use especially lucky dice. Or maybe praying to the moon can help you? — Goboxel · 1
Such nonsense doesn't belong in a class that literally has a card called 'skeptic!' But yes that might be a good mechanical use for the card. There is also the fact that as the campaign goes on the bag will start to bias closer to five, and you can, IRL, 'count cards' here fairly easily. — dezzmont · 69