
Here is a lookup table to check whether Henry Wan is useful or not (if no token ignore/cancel effect).
Strategy: I always reveal the same number of tokens. When I select the number, I choose for it to maximize the mean of success. Since I cannot choose to go ahead or stop when I fail, this strategy looks reasonable for me. But this does not consider the robustness of success.
Expectation Table: the table shows the required number of non-symbol(non-, , , , ) choas tokens to achieve the given success.
0 |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
|
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0.50 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 9 |
0.75 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 9 | 11 | 12 | 14 | 15 |
1.00 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 11 | 13 | 15 | 17 | 20 | 22 |
1.25 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 10 | 13 | 16 | 19 | 22 | 25 | 28 |
1.50 | 2 | 5 | 9 | 13 | 16 | 20 | 24 | 27 | 31 | 34 |
1.75 | 2 | 7 | 11 | 15 | 19 | 24 | 28 | 33 | 37 | 41 |
2.00 | 2 | 8 | 13 | 18 | 22 | 27 | 32 | 37 | 42 | 47 |
2.50 | 3 | 10 | 16 | 22 | 29 | 35 | 41 | 48 | 54 | - |
3.00 | 3 | 12 | 19 | 27 | 35 | 42 | 50 | - | - | - |
4.00 | 4 | 16 | 26 | 37 | 47 | 57 | - | - | - | - |
5.00 | 5 | 20 | 33 | 46 | 59 | - | - | - | - | - |
Row(0.5~5): expected success, Column(0~9): the number of tokens. (-: required number exceeds the total tokens in game (44+20)).
Usage: Find your chaos bag (close one), and then move left (by sealing tokens) and/or down (by adding bless/curse) until you reach your goal. For example, standard NotZ (5 symbols / 11 non-symbols) may exist between 0.75 ~ 1.00. For avg 1(), it is necessary to add 2 blesses/curses tokens or seal 1 token.
Revealed number selection: In my strategy, I select the revealed number based on chaos tokens for maximizing average. Here is my selection number (which is maximizing average).
The trial number is expressed as simple formula: (reveal) = (# of total + 1) / (# of symbols + 1) (round down). If no remainder, you may choose 1 less value.
For example, standard NotZ (5 symbols / 16 toal) case, I'll reveal 2 (17/6=2.xx) tokens for maximizing (avg: 0.92). If I add 1 tokens (5 symbols / 17 total), I'll revel 3 (18/6=3) or 2 tokens (avg: 0.97); success rate is 48% for 2 revealed, 32% for 3 revealed.